Going, Going, Gone: Three technologies on their way out

One of the best parts about a fast moving industry like handhelds is that new things are constantly appearing. But we sometimes ignore the fact that things are going away at the same time. Today I'd like to talk about three once dominant items that I think are on their way out.

CompactFlash Cards

CompactFlash cards have been a tremendous boon to the handheld industry. Pocket PC licensees were wise enough to realize years ago that the format presented a relatively small way to add not just memory but all types of peripherals. This includes everything from digital cameras to wireless networking.

Palm OS licensees missed the boat on this. Only HandEra ever put out models with Compact Flash slots. I believe that Handspring would have been much more successful if it had included a CompactFlash slot in the Visor line instead of developing the Springboard slot. But that's water under the bridge now.

I think the CompactFlash format is currently at its peak and will soon begin an inevitable slide into obsolescence. It's just too big. Handheld designers are forced to choose between making a large, very functional handheld with a CompactFlash slot or a small, less capable one without one. As evidenced by the success of the HP iPAQ h1910, many people prefer size over function. Fortunately, this dilemma will soon be a thing of the past as handhelds will be able to be both.

The announcement from SanDisk last month that it will soon be releasing a Secure Digital card with both 256 MB of memory and Wi-Fi wireless networking for the incredible price of $150 put the writing on the wall; SD is going to replace CF.

SD offers the same capabilities as CompactFlash, including Storage and the ability to connect peripherals. However, SD cards are much, much smaller than CompactFlash ones. You can include a SD slot in a handheld without significantly increasing its size.

Of course, there have been some hiccups in the spread of SD. Several manufacturers have put out models that only allow SD memory cards to be used and not peripherals. However, the word on the street is handheld makers have gotten the message that they need to include support for SDIO in their future models.

Monochrome Screens

For many years monochrome was king. This isn't to say people didn't want color, of course. Color screens just involved too many disadvantages, like increased cost and greatly reduced battery life. Fortunately, progress has been made in both screens and batteries and the day is rapidly approaching when all handhelds will have color screens.

I'm scarcely the first to point this out. All you have to do is look at the development of the PC to see a good parallel. When was the last time you saw a desktop computer with a monochrome monitor?

Some people argue that there will always be really cheap handhelds with monochrome displays. I disagree. It may take a few years but eventually even the cheapest models will be color. Right now, monochrome screens still cost less than color ones because they are easier to make. However, as demand for monochrome screens drops, we will eventually reach the point where so few of them are made they become a product that has to be special ordered. This will push the price up over the cost of an equivalent color screen. I doubt many people will be willing to pay more for a handheld with a monochrome screen than they would for one with a color screen.

I think monochrome reached its apex a couple years ago ans has been on the decline ever since. For evidence, I can point out that Handspring recently stopped selling its Treo 180, its monochrome smartphone. It still offers the Treo 270, which is essentially the same model, except with a color screen. Expect Palm and Sony to phase out their monochrome models in the coming months. Compaq offered the H3150, a monochrome version of the iPAQ, back on 2001 but it wasn't a success and I don't think anyone has done a non-color Pocket PC since.

Wired Handhelds

Until now, the majority of handhelds have needed to be hooked to a PC to connect to the Internet. This is going to change. In fact, this has to change.

The fact that most handhelds don't have a wireless connection to the Internet is what has kept them a niche product. People are used to their computers being constantly connected to the Net. Even the ones who are still using dial-up can be online in just a few seconds. A computer that can't surf the Web or get email seems almost pointless. Is it any wonder that most people can't see much purpose in handhelds that can't do either of these things?

Yes, there are work arounds, like AvantGo. But offline web surfing is a poor substitute for the real thing. Once people can access any website on a handheld at close to the speeds they are used to on their desktop, far more people will want handhelds.

Part of the problem with this is the wireless infrastructure to support it doesn't exist yet. Current wireless networks just aren't fast enough to make the experience compelling. This is why sales of current smartphones like the T-Mobile Pocket PC Phone and Treo 300 have been slow. What we need is something like the CDMA 2000 1x EvDO Wireless Network already available in Korea that can transfer data at up to 2.4 MBps.

Local area wireless networks using Wi-Fi or Bluetooth are a good interim solution but will eventually be replaced with high-speed national networks. However, this won't happen until service is cheap enough. Most people stick with their dial-up account because $20-$25 is worth it, while $40-$50 for a cable modem is too much. A $20 to $25 monthly service charge for a wireless account that provides at least 1 MBps and covers computers and handhelds is what we need. Sadly, it will be a while before we see this but I do think it will happen.

This process has already begun. There are an increasing number of smartphones on the shelves. When I was at the Consumer Electronics Show last month, a majority of the New Handhelds I looked at had wireless capabilities, like the Samsung i300 and i500, Kyocera 7135, and the Hitachi Multimedia Communicator. Right now, Microsoft makes two versions of its handheld operating system, Pocket PC and Pocket PC Phone Edition. In the future, I predict there will be only one of these, and it will include support for Wireless Data and voice.

Please keep in mind, I'm not saying any of these things are going to happen in the immediate future. They'll take time. But they will happen.