Ultra Mobile PCs Are Going to Be Very Important

Easily the biggest story of this week was Microsoft's Origami Project. This a new version of Windows XP designed to run on pocketable mobile devices.

And this won't be just a software project. There will be plenty of models created to run this operating system. Intel has even coined a term to describe these: Ultra Mobile PCs (UMPC).

These are supposed to fulfill Bill Gates' dream of pocket-sized, inexpensive, Windows computers. He wants these to have a constant wireless connection to the Internet and batteries capable of lasting for an entire day.

Because I've been involved with handhelds for quite a few years, I'm sure that many of the people who have been reading about this development are wondering if these will eventually come to replace the handhelds that we have become used to over the past ten years.

I don't think this is going to happen, but there seems little doubt to me that they are going to become very significant in the next few years.

Fulfilling Some People's Dreams

Both Intel's and Microsoft's vision for the UMPC is for a relatively low-cost computer that allows people to run standard Windows applications while on the go.

With a wireless Internet connection, this will allow users to surf the Web, do instant messaging and email, or download video or audio content while on the go.

But it seems to me that both companies are well aware that this is something that a small segment of the market is going to want.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I know that the goal of the Origami Project is to create UMPCs that cost about $500, but that's still expensive for what pretty much has to be a second computer.

There's no way any company is going to get one of these devices down into the entry-level category. And that's the price range where most handhelds are sold.

But, at the same time, for years there have been people paying that much and more for Palm OS and Windows Mobile handhelds that aren't as functional as future generations of UMPCs will be.

A Vision of the Mobile Future

Here's how I think things are going to work out.

As many people have said in the past, there is no way any single class of mobile devices will ever be able to satisfy everyone.

There are those who are going to want a low-cost handheld, others will want a very small smartphone, those who will need the more advanced functionality of a UMPC, and those who want all the power of a laptop.

And I believe companies are going to create a range of devices that meet all these various demands.

But, at the same time, there are going to be some changes. Specifically, I think UMPCs are going to replace today's high-end handhelds. They will also also entice some people away from laptops.

I just can't see any reason why someone would be willing to pay $500 for a Windows Mobile or Pocket PC device when they could get one running Windows XP or Windows Vista for the same price.

There are just too many advantages in running a full version of Windows.

On the other hand, if your needs are fairly modest, paying big bucks for a laptop makes no sense when a UMPC can do everything you need.

Ahh, the Controversy

I realize what I've said here is going to stick in some people's craw.

These people will almost certainly point out that UMPCs are just the latest version of Tablet PCs, and this class of devices has been a complete dud.

But if companies can actually create devices that meet Bill Gates' vision then I sincerely believe they can be successful.

I know the first generation of UMPCs aren't going to live up to Gates' very ambitious goals, but future devices could.

And it is these that will have a significant impact on the mobile device market.