The Coming 4G War

Despite the fact that third generation, or "3G", wireless technologies are still being developed and rolled out, with some carriers are even now operating on 2.5G technology, there's already a brewing conflict over what the next wave in wireless is going to be.

The definition of so called "4G" technologies is pretty heady -- data speeds ranging from 100 megabits/sec. to 1 gigabit/sec., and based on an entirely IP-driven network similar to the Internet, abandoning the circuit-switching nature of current mobile phone networks. Of course, speeds like that have only been achieved in limited tests thus far, mostly in Japan, where 3G has been available for some years. Being able to meet the full definition of 4G on any meaningful scale is years away.

But that hasn't stopped the efforts to establish what are sometimes called "pre-4G" technologies as the next step in growth for mobile devices. And there's actually shaping up to be quite a competition for the title.

"In this Corner..."

The two biggest competitors in this arena are WiMax -- the long-lauded but rarely seen would-be savior of the wireless world -- and a relative newcomer known as 3GPP Long Term Evolution, or LTE.

WiMax, of course, has seen a long history of hype with little actual deployment, despite its promise of data speeds up to 70 megabits/sec. Recently, though, the technology got a significant boost with the decision by Sprint to use WiMax as its path to a pre-4G network, starting at the end of this year, and planning to cover 100 million people within the next year. Intel has also long been a WiMax backer, with chipsets in the offing that integrate with the company's CPU and other processor lines. While Sprint's long-term plans are now in doubt, due to investor pressure, small-scale tests are continuing to proceed.

Long Term Evolution is less well known, but may have even bigger friends in its corner than WiMax. Both Verizon Wireless and Vodafone, two of the largest wireless carriers in the world, have announced plans to use LTE as their next-generation technology. This would eventually -- around the year 2015 -- make the two formerly incompatible networks more or less interoperable, ending the CDMA versus GSM distinction. Of course, it probably helps that Vodafone owns 45% of Verizon Wireless. Still under design by the Third Generation Partnership Project, LTE claims as its goal speeds of 100 megabits down and 50 megabits up per cell. Of course, like WiMax, performance drops rapidly with distance: the optimal LTE cell is around 3.1 miles wide, but can be expanded to 18 miles with "reasonable" performance.

WiMax has one unchallenged advantage: time. The technology has been in the testing and development phase for years, and some companies are already deploying it, while LTE is still years away from commercial availability. It's very likely that WiMax will see extensive deployment and use before LTE is even finalized as a standard. With the potent advantage that being first is in today's technological market, WiMax may find that being first guarantees, if not global dominance, at least a major chunk of the market.

Related Articles:

• Verizon Picks LTE for its 4G Wireless Network
• Sprint Names New CEO; WiMax Plans Still Up in the Air