The Year of the Smartphone, Slightly Held Up

Here at the end of 2008, we look back on hopes and dreams, things that happened and should have happened, and most of all just sit and go, "What's next?" The iffy economics of the past months have made everything from gas prices to job security a bit more important than just the shiny new thing in our pocket. But at the same, that thing in our pocket -- our smartphone -- has taken on a greatly expanded role.

Of course, many saw this coming in 2007 with the introduction of the iPhone. More people than ever finally realized that the "web in your pocket" was more fun than the "web in the corner of your room." And whether you use an iPhone, Treo, BlackBerry, or the mounds of other devices, it was pretty clear last year that 2008 would be the "year of smartphone".

Then there was this hold up. And it was the iPhone that pointed out the issue. Tons of people using the newly released iPhone 3G found that while the new speed was great, they were getting spotty network performance. From dropped calls to slower-than-advertised speeds, all of that "web in your pocket" talk was starting to sound more like a dream than a reality.

Apple blamed AT&T, AT&T blamed the iPhone, customers blamed both Apple and the carrier. And yet there was very little spoken about in terms of a solution.

A theme started to emerge. The BlackBerry Bold made its introduction ahead of the slightly more heralded BlackBerry Storm, but it seemed that the Bold was having issues with network performance, and these were heavily related to the extra network capacity all of those iPhone users were taking up. 

All this made it clear that there was an problem with the smartphone really taking on the role as the device best suited for Internet access. And it had less to do with the mobiles, and a lot to do with the networks.

It is a chicken and egg issue: carriers want more people to use data-heavy devices, but the more people who do, the slower the wireless networks run.

A Solution Ahead?

Now we go into 2009 with the a new-media-oriented president, alternative energy to spur economies, and mobile devices taking on a greater role. But that "year of the smartphone" proclamation hasn't really finished yet. Devices that were supposed to come out and change things were held up (and many manufacturers said as much in their quarterly reports), canceled, or companies themselves folded.

And the carriers are pretty much sitting there saying that all of the devices and services are grand and good, but the network does have limitations. Many of the carriers will happily sell you an unlimited plan with limits on it.

It would seem that for all of the predictions that analysts made for 2008 being the year of the smartphone, we kind of forgot that the network also had to upgrade itself to a more capable unit. That there were all of these pieces attached to mobile phone use that went deeper than just throwing out more standards and bigger pipes. In a sense, we moved so fast that we forgot to shore up the part that actually makes the network go -- that is, the network itself.

The carriers have announced plans for better, faster networks -- Sprint/Clearwire with WiMAX; Verizon, AT&T, and others with LTE -- and the hope is that people will take the growing pains now and wait patiently for the bigger pipes and better service that are to come.

Hence for 2009 I'll wait on making the prediction that smartphones will keep taking off in the consumer market. There are tons of great products just waiting to be released, but if the networks aren't able to handle the amount of users and services we might as well just hang up the phone and try again later. I'm sure that the lines will clear up eventually so all of us can enjoy the mobile technology that was promised to be life-changing just a short a time ago.