A new study indicates mobile devices, like PDAs, running on Microsoft platforms will outsell PC’s running Microsoft platforms by 2008 worldwide and 2010 in the US.
eTForecasts is behind the report. Microsoft is taking advantage of the inevitable penetration of microprocessors and embedded software platforms into all electronics devices , says Dr. Egil Juliussen, the author of the report. It is not a question if this will happen, but a question of when it will happen for each device category.
|Windows PCs Sales (#M)||126||135-138||145-150||170-175||190-200||215-225|
|Windows CE Device Sales (#M)||9||14-17||30-35||105-115||200-220||300-340|
|Windows PCs Sales (#M)||41||42-44||45-47||49-52||52-55||55-60|
|Windows CE Device Sales (#M)||3||4-5||6-8||19-22||35-40||55-60|
They don’t go into specifics behind the logic of their report, you can pony up $4,500 of your own dough for that. However, we can make a few assumptions regarding the increasing mobile number.
Certainly cost is a factor, with PDAs especially. Last year a $300 PDA with color screen and all the features of the Dell was a dream.
This report also takes into consideration Smartphones and “other” mobile devices. People, especially in Europe, will make the Microsoft Smartphone OS pick up some ground.
Lastly I think longevity is at play. A PC, which are used primarily for email and web surfing these days, can last years longer than a PDA or cell phone. For the most part software and peripherals are not driving new PC sales, they way they are mobile devices.
Don’t put too much stock in this and other reports of this nature. While thought provoking, I’m not sure these guys can estimate sales any better than you or I. The big question is what will a PDA look like in 2010?